{"id":22309,"date":"2026-04-25T17:03:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-25T15:03:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/depth-of-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2026-04-25T18:14:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-25T16:14:32","slug":"depth-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/depth-of-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Depth of Uncertainty in Project Management"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Uncertainty in projects arises from unclear objectives, changing requirements, insufficient knowledge of project teams, external disruptions, and unpredictable risks, which often lead to delays, cost overruns, and inefficiency. In PMBOK, <em>uncertainty<\/em> is described as <em>a lack of understanding and awareness of issues, events, path to follow, or solutions to pursue<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But deeper research identifies three categories of uncertainty that together cover all aspects of project management:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Ontological (existential) uncertainty<\/strong>, which can be defined as a state of complete lack of understanding of the existence and purpose of the model of the relevant aspect of the system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty<\/strong>, which is related to the lack of knowledge about the system model and the inaccurate encoding of the physical system in the model.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Aleatory (randomness) uncertainty<\/strong>, which can be considered as the randomness of the process represented by the system model.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>To effectively manage uncertainty during project decision-making, it is crucial to recognize the full spectrum of uncertainty levels, ranging from the <em>ideal<\/em> yet unattainable complete confidence and determinism to the opposite extreme of <em>total<\/em> ignorance and chaos. In the PMBOK Guide \u2014 8th Edition, the range of levels of uncertainty and their challenge to decision makers ranges from \u201cknown knowns\u201d to \u201cunknown unknowns.\u201d This framework is based on philosophical and practical discourses, from ancient Greek epistemology to modern decision theory, emphasizing the complexity and breadth of uncertainties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"565\" src=\"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-1030x565.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22304\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-1030x565.png 1030w, https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-80x44.png 80w, https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-768x421.png 768w, https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-1536x843.png 1536w, https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-1500x823.png 1500w, https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-705x387.png 705w, https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-450x247.png 450w, https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty-407x223.png 407w, https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/Depth-of-Uncertainty.png 1693w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In order to further study uncertainty and develop tools and methods for reducing uncertainty in projects, it is proposed to introduce a new unit of measurement for total uncertainty \u2014 <strong>1 Trump<\/strong>. Each level denotes a progressive increase in uncertainty on a scale <strong>from 0.0 to 1.0 Trump<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Complete confidence and determinism (0.0 Trump)<\/strong>: This denotes a state where everything is known precisely, providing the basis of absolute determinism. This is an ideal practically impossible to achieve in real scenarios, but it serves as a limiting characteristic at one end of the spectrum.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Uncertainty Level 1 (0.0\u20130.2 Trump)<\/strong>: This level acknowledges minor uncertainty but does not require detailed measurement. These situations typically involve short-term decisions where there is sufficient historical data to predict outcomes. They represent simple \u201cknown unknowns\u201d and are close to complete confidence on the Trump scale.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Uncertainty Level 2 (0.2\u20130.4 Trump)<\/strong>: Here, systems and input data can be assessed probabilistically, or future scenarios can be determined with sufficient accuracy and corresponding probabilities. This level includes \u201cknown unknowns,\u201d where risks can be quantified using probabilities, and risk management methods can be used for decision-making.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Uncertainty Level 3 (0.4\u20130.6 Trump)<\/strong>: At this stage, although numerous probable future cases are recognized, exact probabilities cannot be assigned. Decisions are made using scenario analysis, exploring various possible future worlds without definitive probability, indicating increased uncertainty and, thus, a higher position on the Trump scale.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Uncertainty Level 4<\/strong>: Divided into 4a and 4b, this level captures deep uncertainty:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>4a (0.6\u20130.8 Trump)<\/strong>: Many probable future events can be outlined, but the exact models and probabilities of these futures are unknown due to limited data or understanding of the mechanics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>4b (0.8\u20131.0 Trump)<\/strong>: We only know that we do not know\u2014this relates to unpredictable events, also known as \u201cblack swans,\u201d which cannot be predicted by analyzing past data and are only recognized retrospectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Total ignorance and chaos (1.0 Trump)<\/strong>: Representing the opposite end of the spectrum from complete confidence, this level denotes a state of complete unawareness of future possibilities or impacts, constituting total randomness, unpredictability, and chaos, where participants have no way of knowing the full extent of their ignorance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For more details, see the <a href=\"https:\/\/eltecs.op.edu.ua\/index.php\/journal\/article\/view\/3350\/1225\">article &#8220;Categories of Uncertainty Affecting Project Management Information Systems.&#8221;<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How to make decisions when data is scarce and the future looks like the &#8220;fog of war&#8221;? We consider the concept of &#8220;Depth of Uncertainty&#8221; &#8211; an universal scale from 0.0 to 1.0 Trump, which helps project managers classify risks: from simple &#8220;known unknowns&#8221; to a zone of complete chaos and &#8220;Black Swans&#8221;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22310,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[366],"tags":[955],"class_list":["post-22309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-uncertainty"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22309"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22309\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22315,"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22309\/revisions\/22315"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pmdoc.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}