Uncertainty in Project Management

I have long noticed that uncertainty has the greatest impact on my projects and the implementation of project management systems. This ‘uncertainty’ is essentially the inverse measure of knowledge and understanding. If we know everything, have statistics, experience, and established processes, then project management isn’t needed—simple work administration would suffice. On the other hand, if the initiative we are undertaking is quite unique, and we lack detailed knowledge and sufficient understanding of how to proceed—meaning we are in a state of uncertainty—we begin using project management methods and tools to reduce this uncertainty.

For example, what is a Gantt Chart, essentially? Sometimes it is called a ‘schedule’ or ‘timetable,’ but a ‘timetable’ is for things like educational classes or transportation schedules, where there is a degree of certainty.

A Gantt Chart, on the other hand, is just a model of the future. It can be well-developed, based on previous experience or analogous projects, but it will always remain a model because there is always the potential for something to go wrong—something we didn’t anticipate or an unexpected event that might occur.

The two main approaches today—predictive (waterfall) and adaptive (agile)—primarily differ in how they handle uncertainty. Predictive approaches reduce uncertainty ‘theoretically’ through planning and modeling, while adaptive approaches address it ’empirically’ through short cycles of trials and feedback. However, if we introduce progressive elaboration into the predictive approach and high-level planning with a roadmap into the adaptive approach, the differences between these approaches nearly disappear.

The first deliberate approach to reducing uncertainty in creating something new and large-scale was PERT. In essence, PERT was humanity’s first attempt to address uncertainty in projects. While Gantt charts, Adamiecki’s harmonograms, Fayol’s management functions, and Taylor’s scientific management theories were important contributions to improving general management, PERT’s ideas, approaches, and tools specifically reduced uncertainty in project management to such an extent that we still use them today (greetings to everyone who still thinks that PERT is a three-point estimate and are unaware of where the WBS originated).

It is clear that even with the advent of PERT, uncertainty did not disappear completely. In fact, as the pace of change increased, uncertainty contributed to the development of agile and other adaptive approaches.

However, it seems that the developers of PERT addressed the uncertainty of their time so virtuously that even PMI did not pay attention to this problem for as many as three versions of the PMBOK. These first editions mention uncertainty in connection with uniqueness, risks, and PERT itself. It wasn’t until the fourth edition of the PMBOK that this figure appeared:

Both the fourth and fifth editions of the PMBOK view uncertainty primarily through the lens of risks. It wasn’t until the release of Navigating Complexity: A Practice Guide in 2014 (50 years after the introduction of PERT) that PMI began to give sufficient attention to uncertainty. The sixth edition of the PMBOK already includes substantial information on the topic, and by the seventh edition, a separate domain—’Uncertainty‘—was introduced.

However, we are still there—uncertainty related to projects remains as it was.

I believe that if we could fully address uncertainty, project management would either no longer be necessary or would transform into operational management and business administration.

This may sound categorical, but I assert that all processes, tools, and artifacts of project initiation and planning are focused on one thing: combating uncertainty. Yet they do it poorly, so in the processes of execution and control, we continue working to reduce uncertainty. The only closing processes bring a partial resolution to this issue, but not for all aspects of the project’s outcome. For example, the true value for the project can often only be measured over time.

Now, the question:

PMI defines ‘uncertainty‘ as ‘a lack of understanding and awareness of issues, events, paths to follow, or solutions to pursue.’ It also uses terms like ‘degree of uncertainty,’ ‘measure of uncertainty,’ ‘amount of uncertainty,’ and ‘value of uncertainty,’ without offering any clear indication of how uncertainty can actually be measured. So:

1. How exactly can uncertainty be measured?
2. What could be the unit of measurement for uncertainty?